Methodology

How the numbers work

This is a speculation toy. No airdrop is confirmed. Below is exactly how the Pump Score and the three estimates are derived, so you can judge them as analysis.

The premise

pump.fun's tokenomics set aside 24% of the 1T $PUMP supply (240B tokens) for community and ecosystem initiatives including airdrops. The ICO ran in July 2025. No retroactive drop has gone to the traders who generated the fees. That bucket is unspent. We speculate on what a trader drop could look like, modeled on real precedents.

Precedent models

Arbitrum (ARB)

Banded point system on bridged volume, tx count, months active, dApp diversity and liquidity. Minimum points to qualify, early actions worth 2x, sybil patterns penalized. We borrow the bands, the early-adopter multiplier, and the sybil penalties.

Hyperliquid (HYPE)

Trading volume converted to points, share-of-pool distribution, multi-season tranches, diversification multipliers. We borrow the idea that volume and fees are the primary signal.

Pengu / Lighter style

Holdings plus points share, loyalty weighting for holders rather than sellers. We borrow the holdings and tenure weighting as a secondary signal.

Pump Score (0 to 100)

Volume and fees are the primary signal, holdings and tenure are secondary, creator activity is a bonus, early usage gets a 1.25x multiplier on the volume + fees subtotal, and sybil patterns are penalized 10 points each. Below $100 volume with zero coins created, the score is 0 (ngmi).

Trade volume max 30

Banded by lifetime pump.fun volume, from under $1k (0) to over $1M (30).

PUMP held max 15

Flat 5 for holding any, plus up to 10 scaled by the USD value of the holding.

Active days max 12

Distinct active days, banded from 1 to 3 days (3) to over 30 days (12).

Coins created max 13

2 per coin created up to 6, plus 7 if any coin graduated or bonded.

Tokens traded max 7

Banded by distinct tokens traded.

Fees paid max 8

Rewards the fees-paid-is-the-basis framing directly.

CT contribution max 10

From the optional X handle. Kaito mindshare when wired, else follower and account-age bands. Unverified handles cap at 5.

$ANSEM culture max 5

Flat 3 for holding any $ANSEM, plus up to 2 by USD value. Pure flavor, on theme.

The three estimates

We use a fees-paid model, the most defensible because it maps to pump.fun's own "fees fund the community" narrative. For each scenario we assume a share of supply goes to a hypothetical trader drop, then split it pro-rata by fees paid:

rate = (scenarioPct * 1,000,000,000,000) / totalFeesUsd
basePUMP = feesPaid * rate
multiplier = 1 + 0.5 * (PumpScore / 100)   // 1.0x to 1.5x
estimatedPUMP = basePUMP * multiplier
estimatedUSD  = estimatedPUMP * livePumpPrice

Low      = 2% of supply   (20B PUMP)
Medium   = 6% of supply   (60B PUMP)
Moonmath = 15% of supply  (150B PUMP, top of the 24% bucket)

The pool is split across the eligible-trader fee base, not the full ~$1B of lifetime pump.fun fees. Most of those fees come from bots and ineligible flow, so we set the eligible base to ~$50M, which makes each eligible dollar of fees worth proportionally more. The PUMP price is fetched live with a fallback. These constants are illustrative, calibrated to feel believable. None of this is a promise.

Speculation and entertainment only. Not affiliated with or endorsed by pump.fun. No airdrop is confirmed. These numbers are estimates based on past airdrop patterns. Not financial advice. Read-only: paste a public address, never a private key.