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Prediction Markets

A live research desk — the biggest movers across Polymarket, Kalshi and Manifold ranked by 24h activity, plus a curated prediction-market news stream.

24 live markets · 3 venues · 40 news items · updated 29 Jun, 13:30 UTC

🎯 Live movers — what's actually being bet on

Polymarket

Ranked by 24h USD volume
  1. 1
    World Cup Winner
    France 23% $63.9M 24h
  2. 2
    Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?
    Abiy Ahmed 98% $13.3M 24h
  3. 3
    Brazil vs. Japan
    Brazil 56% $6.8M 24h
  4. 4
    Brazil vs. Japan - Exact Score
    Brazil 1 - 0 Japan 14% $3.8M 24h
  5. 5
    Brazil vs. Japan - More Markets
    Brazil 100% $3.7M 24h
  6. 6
    2026 Women's Wimbledon Winner
    Aryna Sabalenka 21% $2.5M 24h
  7. 7
    Germany vs. Paraguay - More Markets
    Germany 100% $2.5M 24h
  8. 8
    Netherlands vs. Morocco
    Netherlands 43% $1.9M 24h

Kalshi

Ranked by 24h contract volume
  1. 1
    2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner? — In 2028
    J.D. Vance 19% 107.8K contracts 24h
  2. 2
    Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce: Wedding location — Before 2030
    New York 75% 38.0K contracts 24h
  3. 3
    How much will the US acquire Greenland for? — During Trump's term
    $0 / No Acquisition 83% 12.9K contracts 24h
  4. 4
    Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce: Wedding bridesmaids — Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift wedding
    Abigail Anderson (Berard) 90% 12.7K contracts 24h
  5. 5
    Who will be Trump's next Attorney General? — Before January 20th, 2029
    Todd Blanche 73% 6.0K contracts 24h
  6. 6
    Next James Bond film: Actor cast as James Bond — Before 2030
    Callum Turner 33% 2.3K contracts 24h
  7. 7
    Who will be Trump's next Director of National Intelligence? — Before January 20th, 2029
    Jay Clayton 78% 2.0K contracts 24h
  8. 8
    What will be the 51st state in Trump's term? — During Trump's term
    Cuba 5% 1.3K contracts 24h

Manifold

Ranked by 24h volume (play money)
  1. 1
    Massachusetts Governor's Race: Which party will win in 2026?
    32.9K mana 24h
  2. 2
    Who will be the next person to win an election to US House District 11, other than Nancy Pelosi?
    31.5K mana 24h
  3. 3
    2026 FIFA World Cup ⚽ | 🏆 Winner
    31.2K mana 24h
  4. 4
    🇧🇷BRA vs 🇯🇵JPN [World Cup '26]
    29.2K mana 24h
  5. 5
    Which party will win the 2026 South Carolina Senate race?
    19.1K mana 24h
  6. 6
    🇪🇸ESP vs 🇦🇹AUT [World Cup '26]
    18.1K mana 24h
  7. 7
    🇬🇧ENG vs 🇨🇩COD [World Cup '26]
    17.9K mana 24h
  8. 8
    Georgia Governor's Race: Which party will win in 2026?
    17.4K mana 24h

🗞 News — what moves the needle