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Prediction Markets

A live research desk — the biggest movers across Polymarket, Kalshi and Manifold ranked by 24h activity, plus a curated prediction-market news stream.

24 live markets · 3 venues · 40 news items · updated 29 Sept, 13:55 UTC

🎯 Live movers — what's actually being bet on

Polymarket

Ranked by 24h USD volume
  1. 1
    Dota 2: 1win vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - BLAST Slam Group B
    Natus Vincere 100% $1.6M 24h
  2. 2
    Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - BLAST Slam Group B
    Team Nemesis 100% $1.3M 24h
  3. 3
    What price will Bitcoin hit in September?
    ↑ 85,000 100% $927.8K 24h
  4. 4
    Bitcoin above ___ on September 29?
    76,000 100% $884.7K 24h
  5. 5
    Ballon d'Or Winner 2026
    Harry Kane 45% $843.0K 24h
  6. 6
    Valorant: Karmine Corp vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Champions Group D
    Karmine Corp 100% $842.9K 24h
  7. 7
    Australia vs. Brazil
    Brazil 100% $763.7K 24h
  8. 8
    Brazil Presidential Election
    Flávio Bolsonaro 58% $715.2K 24h

Kalshi

Ranked by 24h contract volume
  1. 1
    When will any company achieve AGI? — Corporate announcement
    Before Jan 1, 2031 82% 8.8K contracts 24h
  2. 2
    Will Zohran Mamdani become President of the United States before 2045?
    Before 2045 12% 2.6K contracts 24h
  3. 3
    Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first? — Before 2040
    Anthropic 94% 2.2K contracts 24h
  4. 4
    2030 FIFA World Cup Champion
    Spain 13% 1.4K contracts 24h
  5. 5
    Who will be the next CEO of Goldman Sachs? — In 2035
    John Waldron 78% 489 contracts 24h
  6. 6
    Will SpaceX land anything successfully on Mars before 2030?
    Before 2030 26% 457 contracts 24h
  7. 7
    Roch Cholowsky: Debut Date
    Before Nov 1, 2031 90% 400 contracts 24h
  8. 8
    Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon? — Before 2031
    United States 56% 260 contracts 24h

Manifold

Ranked by 24h volume (play money)
  1. 1
    Anthropic share of OpenRouter tokens (%)
    315.6K mana 24h
  2. 2
    Annie Andrews wins South Carolina US Senate election?
    Yes 16% 159.0K mana 24h
  3. 3
    DeepSeek IPO Market Cap (MNX)
    144.0K mana 24h
  4. 4
    Z.AI (MNX)
    125.0K mana 24h
  5. 5
    MiniMax (MNX)
    102.2K mana 24h
  6. 6
    OpenAI IPO Market Cap (MNX)
    73.0K mana 24h
  7. 7
    Moonshot AI IPO Market Cap (MNX)
    72.0K mana 24h
  8. 8
    How many Anthropic/OpenAI employees will resign in September 2026 due to ethical concerns?
    54.9K mana 24h

🗞 News — what moves the needle