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Prediction Markets

A live research desk — the biggest movers across Polymarket, Kalshi and Manifold ranked by 24h activity, plus a curated prediction-market news stream.

24 live markets · 3 venues · 40 news items · updated 13 Aug, 20:03 UTC

🎯 Live movers — what's actually being bet on

Polymarket

Ranked by 24h USD volume
  1. 1
    LoL: Top Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend
    LGD Gaming 100% $2.3M 24h
  2. 2
    Counter-Strike: Legacy vs FaZe (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group B
    FaZe 100% $2.2M 24h
  3. 3
    Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Group Stage
    Team Resilience 100% $1.9M 24h
  4. 4
    Fed Decision in September?
    No change 71% $1.9M 24h
  5. 5
    Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs M80 (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group A
    Aurora Gaming 100% $1.7M 24h
  6. 6
    Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Astralis (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group B
    Team Falcons 100% $1.4M 24h
  7. 7
    Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?
    Abiy Ahmed 95% $1.2M 24h
  8. 8
    Presidential Election Winner 2028
    JD Vance 23% $1.1M 24h

Kalshi

Ranked by 24h contract volume
  1. 1
    Next James Bond film: Actor cast as James Bond — Before 2030
    Jack Lowden 35% 18.9K contracts 24h
  2. 2
    Will Zohran Mamdani announce their departure as Mayor of New York City? — Before Jan 2030
    Before Jan 1, 2030 41% 9.1K contracts 24h
  3. 3
    When will any company achieve AGI? — Corporate announcement
    Before Jan 1, 2031 81% 2.2K contracts 24h
  4. 4
    2030 FIFA World Cup Champion
    Spain 14% 1.3K contracts 24h
  5. 5
    Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first? — Before 2040
    Anthropic 94% 1.1K contracts 24h
  6. 6
    When will Bloomberg officially announce an IPO?
    Before Jan 1, 2030 34% 1.0K contracts 24h
  7. 7
    Who will be the world's second trillionaire? — Before Jan 1, 2033
    Mark Zuckerberg 32% 923 contracts 24h
  8. 8
    Peak US National Debt Under Trump Administration — Before 2029
    $42.5 trillion 98% 805 contracts 24h

Manifold

Ranked by 24h volume (play money)
  1. 1
    Bitcoin price (USD)
    136.5K mana 24h
  2. 2
    Open-weight AI token share on OpenRouter (%)
    36.8K mana 24h
  3. 3
    Who will be elected president in 2028?
    33.2K mana 24h
  4. 4
    Will Apple announce a foldable iPhone by the end of 2026?
    Yes 96% 14.3K mana 24h
  5. 5
    Will Iran's regime fall in 2026?
    Yes 5% 11.6K mana 24h
  6. 6
    2028 Democratic nominee?
    7.9K mana 24h
  7. 7
    Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
    7.9K mana 24h
  8. 8
    Do you like 26% odds?
    Yes 26% 7.7K mana 24h

🗞 News — what moves the needle